Brexit UKIP stands for a complete and total withdrawal from the European Union. UKIP was the only party to publish a Brexit plan, entitled, ‘Brexit Must Mean Exit. Taking Control. The UKIP Plan for Leaving the European Union’ (July 2017).
This is available to read or download from the UKIP website, http://www.ukip.org •
In short, UKIP stands for: no more money to be paid to the EU, no more EU laws imposed upon us, no more jurisdiction over us by the European Court and no more open-border EU immigration. • Irrespective of whatever ‘Withdrawal Agreement’ HM Government agrees with the EU, UKIP will continue to fight for the UK’s total independence from the EU, and to fully restore the UK’s former status as an independent, self-governing, sovereign state. • A clean exit from the EU will include withdrawing post-Brexit from PESCO (Permanent Structure Cooperation), the EU’s ‘Defence Union’, or nascent Army, which the Government agreed to prior to Brexit. • Britain’s international standing will be enhanced by leaving the EU as it will be able to act independently, whilst retaining its membership of the UN Security Council, the World Trade Organisation, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, and over 100 other international organisations of which we are a member. • Outside the European Union Britain will be a more prosperous nation. It will regain control of its trade policy, free business from unnecessary regulation, regain control of its agricultural industry and restore its fishing industry. Increased prosperity will mean more jobs, and more tax revenue to pay for the things we all want for the British people.
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Mass uncontrolled immigration has been extremely damaging to Britain. We have imported cheap labour by the million. This not only exploits migrants but depresses the wages and living standards of those at the bottom end of the economic scale, and drives up property prices and rental costs. In 1997 the official British population figure was 58 million people. The figure in 2017 was 66 million. A recent report showed that the 6.6 million population growth between 2000-2016 was 80% due to migrants and births to migrants. Such a rate of increase is simply unsustainable in one of the most densely populated countries in the world.
- UKIP believes that the age of uncontrolled mass-immigration must come to an end. We have open borders with the EU but successive British governments have also failed to control immigration from outside of the EU. UKIP will introduce a selective and limited Australian style points-based immigration system. Immigration for permanent settlement must be strictly limited.
- Temporary immigration for workers on work permits and students will be both strictly controlled and time-limited.
- UKIP will develop the UK Border Force into a Migration Control Department directly responsible to a Minister. This department will oversee the immigration system and border control.
- Migrants will not be able to claim public housing or benefits until they have been a tax paying resident in UK for a continuous five years.
- Workers on permits and students will be expected to possess private health insurance as a condition of entry to the UK (unless covered by a reciprocal medical treatment agreement).
- UKIP will rescind the UK’s assent to the Barcelona Declaration (1995) and the Marrakesh Declaration (2018). Both of these documents pave the way for yet more uncontrolled and unlimited immigration from Africa, the Middle East and beyond
Recent Population Growth [Migration Watch]
1. The UK population is growing at the fastest rate for almost a century. Unlike previous episodes of growth, the major reason for this increase has been the high level of immigration. (Read More)
2. The population growth of a country is affected by the birth rate, death rate and net migration (the difference between immigration and emigration). Net migration adds to the population both directly from the migrant themselves and indirectly by increasing the number of births in the country. In 2016, well over a quarter (28.2%) of live births in England and Wales were to mothers born outside the UK, the highest level on record. This percentage has increased every year since 1990, when it was 11.6% (Read More)
3. In 2001 the population of the UK was estimated at 59.1 million, with 4.9 million (8.3%) foreign born. By 2011 the population of the UK had increased by 4.1 million to 63.2 million with the foreign born population at 8 million (12.6%). The population now stands at 65.6 million (mid-2017). (Read More)
4. An estimated 82% of UK population growth between 2001 and 2016 was due to the arrival of migrants, their children and their subsequent children born in the UK. So immigration has added roughly one million to our population every three years (read our August 2018 paper).
England is already highly overcrowded
5. Over 90% of international migrants to the UK go to England which now has a population density of 425 people per square km . The population density of England is higher than in India, the world’s second most populous country and is nearly twice that of Germany and 3.5 times that of France.
6. The population of England grew by a faster rate than any other region of the UK between 2016 and 2017 and faster than the UK-wide rate of 0.8%.
Future population Growth
7. If net migration continues at recent levels the UK will become ever more crowded. Projections of future population growth have to make assumptions about net migration, birth rates and mortality but, in the UK, net migration at recent levels is the largest driver of population growth.
8. The Office for National Statistics produces projections on different assumptions about net migration. If net migration were reduced to zero (that is, the numbers of people entering and leaving the country were the same) the population would rise gradually to 67.3 million (from its current 65.6 million) in twenty-five years before gradually declining from the middle of the century.
9. In contrast, under the principal projection from the ONS with net migration at 165,000, the population is expected to increase by a total of 7.3 million over the next twenty-five years, passing the 70 million mark sometime in 2029. (Read More)
10. However, net migration is currently 250,000, far higher than the level assumed in the principal projection and has averaged a quarter of a million for the last ten years. If net migration were to continue at present levels, then the population would reach 73 million in the next 20 years. This is the ONS ‘high’ migration scenario of 245,000 per year. This increase of nearly 8 million people is the equivalent of adding the combined population of Greater Manchester and the cities of Birmingham, Glasgow, Liverpool, Leicester, Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford, Nottingham, Portsmouth and Bristol. 82% of this increase would be from future migration and the children of those migrants.
11. The population growth would not stop there. It would continue to increase towards 80 million by mid-century and keep going upwards. These projections are illustrated below.
Table 1. The impact of future net migration on the UK population. Source: ONS 2016-based population projections.
|Projection||Net Migration Assumption (thousand)||UK Population in mid-2041 (million)||Population Increase (million)||% of increase due to future migration|
Figure 1. ONS Population Projections at different levels of migration. Source: ONS 2016-based population projections.
12. The vast majority of population growth is projected to occur in England. Of the 7.3 million increase in the UK population projected by 2041 under the principal projection, 6.7 million, or 92% is due to take place in England which will present very significant problems for housing and public services.
Table 2. Increase in the population of the UK and England under Principal Projection. Source: ONS 2016-based population projections.
|UK increase from 2016 (millions)||2.5||3.6||5||6.2||7.3|
|England increase from 2016 (millions)||1.7||3.2||4.5||5.6||6.7|
|England increase as % of UK increase||68%||88%||90%||90%||92%|
13. Some claim that as the birth rate has decreased and life expectancy increases, the UK needs immigration in order to sustain the ratio of working age people to old age pensioners.
14. While it is true that the total fertility rate (TFR) is below the level required to sustain the population in the long run (a TFR of 2.1 is required and the current TFR is 1.81) and we are indeed living longer, it is highly dubious to claim that immigration is a long term and sustainable solution.
15. Migration can moderate population ageing at the national level but the effect is not strong and migration cannot solve population ageing since, obviously, migrants also grow old. They would need to be replaced by an ever-increasing flow of immigrants to have any continuing effect on the age structure of the UK. The result would be a substantial and continuing increase of the population, potentially without end.
16. A more sensible solution to address ageing and maintain the ratio of workers to non-workers is to increase the retirement age, reflecting the fact that not only are we living longer but we are also, thankfully, much healthier later into our lives than we ever have been.
17. Such rapid population growth has severe impacts on the provision of public services such as school places. (Read More) Similar strains will be placed on infrastructure like the transport network. Roads will have to be widened and new ones built to deal with the extra traffic while overcrowding on the railways will increase. Adequate housing will have to be built to accommodate all the extra people, either by making our urban areas more overcrowded or by building on green field sites with the loss of valuable amenities like beautiful countryside and productive farmland. Already, in recent years most of the increase in households has been down to an increase in those with a foreign born head of households. (Read More)
What can be done?
1. The long-term objective must be to stabilise the growth in the UK population, which is projected to grow by an average of almost 400,000 a year for the next 25 years. The population of Bristol is currently 430,000. Click here to read more about the impact of immigration on our population.
2. This can only be achieved by reducing net migration (the difference between those arriving and those leaving) to less than 100,000 a year.
3. In the year ending June 2017 there were an estimated 572,000 immigrants to the UK and 342,000 emigrants giving a figure for net migration of 230,000. Reducing net migration as proposed would still allow for substantial flows each way. Crucially it would not prevent the increasing numbers of tourists and business visitors that we all want to see.
4. Some opponents claim that immigration cannot be controlled so it is fruitless to try. They argue that this is just another manifestation of globalisation. This is nonsense. The UK, like every other country, should be able to control immigration. Reflect for a moment on what the level of immigration from much of the developing world would be without a visa system and border controls.
5. What is needed is more effective immigration control and enforcement of immigration law. A target for net migration remains essential for focusing government policy so it is welcome that the government remains committed to reducing net migration to the tens of thousands.
6. The largest source of net migration remains from countries outside the European Union, something over which the government has immediate control (See here for more on the net migration statistics).
7. In recent years substantial reforms to non-EU immigration have taken place with the aim of reducing numbers. They included raising the skills requirement for non-EU workers, ensuring that students are genuine by interviewing applicants, raising the income threshold required to sponsor a non-EU spouse and shutting down large numbers of bogus colleges. However only a small reduction in inflow has been recorded.
8. There is still considerable scope for action on outflows. Non-EU outflow has remained at around 100,000 per year despite the inflow reaching well above 300,000 at times. Steps have already been taken to make some legal migration more temporary so that fewer people are entitled to stay on and settle. For example, workers must be earning a £35,000 if they wish to settle.
9. The exit checks (reintroduced in May 2015) are now showing high levels of compliance amongst those whose visas have expired (and who have not obtained an extension). However, there remains, possibly, at least one million illegal migrants in the country and more should be done to reduce this number.
10. Two new Acts of Parliament (the Immigration Acts of 2014 and 2016) have extended deportation powers, limited the extensive grounds for appeal previously available, imposed responsibilities on landlords, banks and the DVLA to carry out checks on immigration status and those who knowingly rent properties to illegal immigrants face criminal prosecution. All of this is designed to make life more difficult for illegal migrants with no right to remain. However, this needs to be backed up with the deterrent of actual removal and in recent years too few illegal immigrants have been removed from the country. In 2016 the Home Office removed 2,400 immigration offenders, 6,200 Foreign National Offenders and 2,400 failed asylum seekers. The low rate of removal must be addressed by increasing enforcement efforts. In 2015/16 just £463 million was spent on immigration enforcement, or less than half a percent of total government spending in the same year. This is entirely inadequate. You can read a summary of illegal immigration in the UK here.
11. The aim must be to get non-EU net migration back down to well below 100,000 a year. Non-EU net migration has averaged over 180,000 in the last ten years.
12. In June 2016 the UK voted to leave the European Union. This presents the government with an opportunity to redraw the rules governing the entry of EU nationals to Britain. The goal should be to create as little disruption to the familial, cultural and economic ties between Britain and the EU as possible while also reducing EU migration.
13. EU migration more than doubled to 180,000 over the course of the last Parliament although fell in the year following the referendum. There is however no sign of a so-called ‘Brexodus’ with 107,000 more EU citizens arriving than leaving in the latest year. Around 70% of EU migrants arriving in Britain come to work and this is where the focus should be. There is no reason why tourists, students, the self sufficient and those in genuine marriages should not continue to enjoy unhindered movement to the UK.
14. Of those who have come to work from the EU in the last ten years, around 80% would not have qualified for a highly-skilled work permit. The Migration Advisory Committee confirms that low skilled migration adds little or nothing to GDP per capita or productivity (See 2016 report here). It can also have a negative impact on wages, in particular in the semi and unskilled services sector. If net migration from the EU is to be reduced, migration into lower-skilled work will have to be controlled.
15. The most effective method of reducing net migration from the EU after Brexit would be to extend the current work permit system to EU workers. Work visas are restricted to those who have been offered a skilled job paying a minimum of £20,700 a year for new entrants to the labour market and £30,000 a year for experienced workers. We estimate that around 30,000 work permits per year would allow businesses to maintain their stock of skilled EU workers while also allowing for future growth. (See here) This could reduce EU migration by around 100,000 a year. (See here).
16. However, this will not happen overnight. In March 2017 the Prime Minister triggered Article 50 which began a two year period of negotiations over Britain’s exit and future relationship with the EU. The UK will leave the EU by Spring 2019. However, it seems likely that free movement for EU citizens will continue for an approximately two year transition period after we leave the EU Therefore an immediate reduction in EU migration is unlikely to take place.
17. For those EU nationals already living in the UK, the government has been clear that they will be allowed to remain and it is currently in the process of registering the 3 million EU nationals who have made the UK their home.
18. More British citizens leave the UK than return each year. This means that foreign immigration is to some extent offset by net British emigration which has averaged around 50,000 a year in recent years. This is however, outside the government’s control.
19. Immigration policy is only one part of the effort to bring down net migration. Employers can too easily turn to migrants rather than provide training in the necessary skills or offer enough pay to people already in the UK. The government has introduced an immigration skills charge which must be paid by employers recruiting non-EU migrants under Tier 2 (there are exceptions for those switching from student visas). This is a good start although there is more that can be done to train British people, especially in the field of healthcare where training places for doctors and nurses have been cut.
20. Employers should also be encouraged to pay reasonable wages and where necessary invest in technology rather than take on overseas workers prepared to work for low wages. Brexit offers the opportunity to end the supplementing of wages for low-paid EU workers with tax credits and housing benefit (see here). Employers should pay wages that are sufficient for workers to maintain themselves and their families without support from the UK taxpayer. The state, as a major employer itself, also has a role to play in ensuring appropriate levels of pay and conditions together with education and training for workers in key areas of the public sector, such as health and social care.
21. In the longer term the use of ID cards, to tackle illegal working and to regulate access to public services, is essential.
A stronger society
22. Public concern about mass immigration of people of many different backgrounds is consistently clear and strong. We would like to see net migration reduced so that it is no longer an issue of public concern. This would help to ensure a harmonious society that continues to welcome migrants and the contribution they make to our society.
Updated 2nd January 2018